Friday, March 20, 2009

2010 Political Predictions: Round 1 -- San Jose

Because Watch Dogs are always looking out, we thought we would look out onto the political landscape and provide a brief, incomplete, and rumor-filled run down of what things are going to look like a year from now. We are going to start with City of San Jose races and move to other races in the coming days and weeks. We know it seems like a long way off, but June 2010 will see some intriguing (and some boring) elections. (Watch Dog predictions are included, free of charge):

City of San Jose

Mayor
Chuck Reed will run for re-election against only gadfly-like opponents. He will tout his Green Vision, the ongoing effort with the Oakland A’s, the City not falling completely apart, and run away with a victory. The Labor Temple folks will continue to float names of people who will run against Mayor Reed, but to no avail. (Coto? Campos? Honda? Chavez? Bueller, Bueller, Bueller...)

Watch Dog Mayoral Prediction: Boring Race
Watch Dog Mayoral Winner: Chuck Reed and American Flag Tie Sales
Watch Dog Mayoral Loser: The Civic Discourse…
District 1
This seat is now held by Pete "Ball Gag" Constant who will be up for re-election. There are rumblings that some groups (Police Officers? Firefighters?) are looking for folks to run against him. Watch Dog doubts that will happen but it certainly would make this race much more exciting if for no other reason than the photograph of Constant wearing S&M trappings would certainly come out...Plus, the Mercury News Editorial Board pretty much said that they disagree with Constant on things: Opening the door for a fair shake from the local paper for any candidate brave enough to take Constant on…

Watch Dog District 1 Prediction: Boring Race
Watch Dog District 1 Winner: Pete Constant
Watch Dog District 1 Loser: Ball Gag Sales

District 3

Sam Liccardo is up for re-election as well. Watch Dog has not heard any rumblings about possible opponents on this front. Probably because taking on Liccardo would be a fool's-errand. But a couple of fools ran against Liccardo the first time around...(Memo to Joel Wyrick: You should probably take your campaign website down. You got 742 votes...)

Watch Dog District 3 Prediction:
Boring Race
Watch Dog District 3 Winner:
Sam Liccardo
Watch Dog District 3 Loser: Pete Constant...because he knows 2014 is tougher with a re-elected Liccardo...

District 5

Councilmember Nora Campos will be termed out of office and will seek greener pastures...which will leave the race wide open, right? Well, not so much. Her brother, Planning Commissioner/Political Hack Xavier Campos is lining up to coast into office. Unless something goes horribly wrong. (Which judging from who Xavier hangs out with, is not impossible.) There will be other folks in the race, like Bud LoMonaco, but unless someone else gets in the race (hint hint) it is going to be a Campos Cakewalk.

Watch Dog District 5 Prediction: Boring Race (unless)
Watch Dog District 5 Winner:
Xavier Campos (unless)
Watch Dog District 5 Loser:
District 5 Residents

District 7

Madison Nguyen is up for re-election as well. Since everyone in District 7 loves Madison, we can't see how someone would run against her...

Watch Dog District 7 Predictions:
Nasty, Back-Stabbing, Incomprehensible Race
Watch Dog District 7 Winner:
Madison Nguyen
Watch Dog District 7 Loser: Madison Nguyen (two races in 14 months…ouch)

District 9

This will be the most exciting race for City Council in 2010 because Judy Chirco is termed out. Candidates are already lining up. Here are the likely (and unlikely) candidates that are being rumored to run:
  • Jim Cogan: Likely candidate, Chief of Staff to Pete Constant, Crime Stopper Board Member, long-time City Hall hack, and a chronic backstabber of his boss...

  • Pam Foley: Likely candidate, San Jose Unified School Board Member, business owner, long-time District 9 resident...

  • Don Rocha: Unlikely candidate, mid-level RDA dude, Cambrian School District Board member, former developer/lobbyist...

  • Larry Pegram: Unlikley candidate, Right wing zealot, former Councilmember, censorship (and Constant) lover...
Watch Dog District 9 Prediction: Exciting Race
Watch Dog District 9 Winner: Pam Foley. Unfortunately for Jim Cogan, the race between the two (likely) candidates seems to be a redo of 2002 when an established neighborhood leader (and grown up) Chirco took on City Hall insider (and young kid) Chris Hemingway...in this scenario Foley is Chirco, Cogan is Hemingway, and the results aren’t different. (For those of you who weren't paying attention back then -- Chirco kicked Hemingway's ass, even though he had all the 'institutional' support – Labor, Chamber, Police, Fire, and termed-out Councilmember John DiQuisto, etc.)
Watch Dog District 9 Loser: Pete Constant...because it will show Constant has no reach outside his neighborhoods...

Check back later in the week for the County Supervisor’s race that is shaping up to be an over the top rope Battle Royale…


1 comment:

Jim Cogan said...

Thanks for implying I am a young kid – I probably have too much white hair to deserve the label. As a dad, and a homeowner in this economy, I am sure I will have a lot more by the time I officially announce my candidacy. On that subject, you might want to avoid calling a winner until you hear our positions on the issues or see how hard we are willing to work. I understand your simple comparison of superficial similarities between the 2002 D9 race and potential 2010 D9 race, but every race is different. At least we agree it will be exciting.